Realtor Magazine, a publication of the National Association of Realtors, has posted the results of their recent analysis of all the real estate markets throughout the entire country. There is an enormous volume of data to digest and one can draw different conclusions depending how optimistic or pessimistic your viewpoint. One of the categories that caught my attention tracks the average list price of homes. While it’s only one of hundreds of statistics, it’s an excellent indicator of the mental state of the market in that specific area.
According to their statistics, Florida cities have experienced the largest year over year increase in list prices of all cities across the country. Florida cities took ten out of the top eleven spots on a national list of cities with the largest increases in prices. The increases ranged from 11 to 27 %! Naples, in the number 7 spot, is up over 15% from last year. The average list price in these ten Florida markets is now $421,900. Nationwide, the average list price is $320,325, up just 2.36% year over year.
While Florida markets were among the hardest hit when the housing crash occurred, they are also among the top areas rebounding in price. This is despite the fact that there is still a back-log of homes facing foreclosure. This apparent dichotomy can be explained by the very nature of real estate. While the term covers, in this case, residential property, it’s property of all kinds in different locations each with it’s own unique character. While property is lumped into this single category, that category is so diverse that it cannot be dealt with as one uniform chunk.
When the country was inexorably headed toward a housing crash, many experts predicted that prices would not fall more than 10 to 15% and the changes would be regional not national, since the market had always acted in a de-coupled way with local conditions carrying the greatest influence on prices. Everyone was shocked when this model was thrown out and the entire nation’s real estate holdings went into the dumper.
We all now have a greater understanding of the forces at work that caused this unprecedented behavior in the housing market and while it’s complicated, it can be summed up in one short statement: Wall Street. They arrogantly decided they could make obscene amounts of money manipulating the mortgage market. It was the classic case of the in-mates running the asylum. Nobody knew what they didn’t know, they just knew they were making a lot of money.
What this means is that the real estate recovery, which will happen, will behave in a more typical fashion. In other words, while everything went into the dumper together, regardless of whether it was unique and beautiful or common and ugly, the recovery will reward the former and punish the latter and regional effects will once again become primary drivers of real estate prices. While there will be foreclosures and depressed prices continuing in certain regions all over the country, the most unique and beautiful neighborhoods will not be affected because their desirability will pull them to the top of the market.
I’m not surprised that Florida is seeing the largest percentage gains in price year over year. Our real estate market in Naples retains all of the characteristics that made it such a wonderful and desirable place to live pre-recession. There is a uniqueness to Naples that has not changed or diminished. Our Naples lifestyle is every bit as wonderful now as it has ever been and the future is as bright an colorful as a Naples sunset. The bargain prices we’re seeing now won’t last. Apparently, according to the statistics demand is already on the upswing and the prices are beginning to follow.




